UCF
W-L: (40-20) PR = 96.2496Schedule/Results All Games
Date Opponent Conf/State (W-L, PR) Score 205 H Boston University PAT ( 7-10, 94.0) 13- 0 205 H Cal State Bakersfield BW ( 0-18, 86.8) 10- 0 206 H Duke ACC (46-15, 96.6) 2- 5 207 H Maryland B10 (19-30, 90.3) 15- 7 208 H Buffalo MA ( 1-13, 87.8) 12- 2 208 H Maryland B10 (19-30, 90.3) 9- 1 211 H Missouri SEC (24-31, 94.5) 5- 1 213 H Northwestern B10 (29-20, 95.4) 6- 4 213 H Georgia SEC (44-17, 97.7) 5-13 214 A LSU SEC (37-21, 97.0) 5- 1 214 H Nebraska B10 (51-10, 98.7) 0- 6 215 H Southern Utah WAC (22-27, 90.7) 6- 8 219 H Ohio MA ( 5- 3, 91.9) 4- 1 220 H Ohio MA ( 5- 3, 91.9) 9- 1 220 H Penn State B10 (32-22, 95.0) 5- 6 221 H Notre Dame ACC (24-29, 93.0) 6- 2 222 H Notre Dame ACC (24-29, 93.0) 3- 1 222 A Lamar SL (10- 7, 92.6) 5- 3 225 H Florida Atlantic AC (33-21, 94.7) 9- 5 226 H Dartmouth IVY ( 0- 5, 91.7) 8- 0 226 H Dartmouth IVY ( 0- 5, 91.7) 8- 1 227 H Wagner NE ( 0- 4, 90.0) 9- 1 228 H George Washington A10 ( 2- 3, 88.4) 5- 1 228 H Florida A&M SWAC ( 3- 8, 87.6) 21- 2 306 A Oklahoma State B12 (41-17, 97.1) 4- 1 307 A Oklahoma State B12 (41-17, 97.1) 1- 2 308 A Oklahoma State B12 (41-17, 97.1) 6- 4 313 H Baylor B12 (32-26, 94.2) 4- 3 314 H Baylor B12 (32-26, 94.2) 3-12 315 H Baylor B12 (32-26, 94.2) 2- 8 318 A FIU CUSA (32-18, 92.6) 3- 1 320 H Texas Tech B12 (60-11, 99.2) 3- 4 321 H Texas Tech B12 (60-11, 99.2) 0- 9 322 H Texas Tech B12 (60-11, 99.2) 2- 7 325 H Florida Gulf Coast ASUN ( 3-18, 89.7) 3- 2 327 H Utah B12 (36-19, 95.3) 16- 1 328 H FIU CUSA (32-18, 92.6) 11- 4 329 A Houston B12 (20-30, 91.1) 22- 8 402 H Utah B12 (36-19, 95.3) 17- 0 403 H Utah B12 (36-19, 95.3) 9- 1 404 H Utah B12 (36-19, 95.3) 2- 2 410 A Arizona State B12 (45-18, 96.4) 1- 7 411 A Arizona State B12 (45-18, 96.4) 8- 1 412 A Arizona State B12 (45-18, 96.4) 4- 3 415 H Stetson ASUN ( 1-13, 91.5) 5- 3 417 H Kansas B12 (34-24, 95.2) 6- 3 418 H Kansas B12 (34-24, 95.2) 9- 2 419 H Kansas B12 (34-24, 95.2) 2- 4 422 H North Florida ASUN ( 6- 5, 93.8) 4- 1 424 A Florida SEC (51-13, 97.7) 0- 7 425 H Florida SEC (51-13, 97.7) 0- 7 501 A Iowa State B12 (33-21, 94.1) 8- 5 502 A Iowa State B12 (33-21, 94.1) 9-13 503 A Iowa State B12 (33-21, 94.1) 12- 4 507 H Kansas B12 (34-24, 95.2) 5- 6 515 H Jacksonville State CUSA (42-14, 94.8) 2- 1 516 A Stetson ASUN ( 1-13, 91.5) 10- 1 517 A Florida State ACC (52-10, 97.5) 1- 2 517 H Florida State ACC (52-10, 97.5) 4- 2 522 A UCLA B10 (52-11, 99.5) 1- 9 523 H UCLA B10 (52-11, 99.5) 4-14
PREDICTION LIST
-------------------------------------
|Real = actual goal margin |
|Pred = predicted goal margin |
|+ = slightly above prediction |
|++ = above prediction |
|+++ = well above prediction |
|- = slightly below prediction |
|-- = below prediction |
|--- = well below prediction |
|Goals* = Goals over (+) under (-) |
| prediction. N/A when ten |
| goal limit is exceeded |
|n/a = Outside division |
-------------------------------------
Date Opponent Score Real Pred +/- Goals*
205 H Boston University 13- 0 13 3 +++ 10.01
205 H Cal State Bakersfield 10- 0 10 10 -0.20
206 H Duke 2- 5 -3 0 - -3.38
207 H Maryland 15- 7 8 7 1.26
208 H Buffalo 12- 2 10 9 0.77
208 H Maryland 9- 1 8 7 1.26
211 H Missouri 5- 1 4 2 1.51
213 H Northwestern 6- 4 2 2 0.43
213 H Georgia 5-13 -8 -1 --- -7.30
214 A LSU 5- 1 4 -2 ++ 5.51
214 H Nebraska 0- 6 -6 -2 -- -4.31
215 H Southern Utah 6- 8 -2 6 --- -8.28
219 H Ohio 4- 1 3 5 - -2.10
220 H Ohio 9- 1 8 5 + 2.90
220 H Penn State 5- 6 -1 2 - -3.03
221 H Notre Dame 6- 2 4 4 -0.00
222 H Notre Dame 3- 1 2 4 - -2.00
222 A Lamar 5- 3 2 3 -0.88
225 H Florida Atlantic 9- 5 4 2 1.67
226 H Dartmouth 8- 0 8 5 + 2.67
226 H Dartmouth 8- 1 7 5 1.67
227 H Wagner 9- 1 8 7 0.97
228 H George Washington 5- 1 4 9 -- -4.61
228 H Florida A&M 21- 2 19 9 ++ 4.59
306 A Oklahoma State 4- 1 3 -2 ++ 4.60
307 A Oklahoma State 1- 2 -1 -2 0.60
308 A Oklahoma State 6- 4 2 -2 + 3.60
313 H Baylor 4- 3 1 3 -1.77
314 H Baylor 3-12 -9 3 --- -11.77
315 H Baylor 2- 8 -6 3 --- -8.77
318 A FIU 3- 1 2 3 -0.87
320 H Texas Tech 3- 4 -1 -2 1.25
321 H Texas Tech 0- 9 -9 -2 --- -6.75
322 H Texas Tech 2- 7 -5 -2 - -2.75
325 H Florida Gulf Coast 3- 2 1 7 --- -6.34
327 H Utah 16- 1 15 2 +++ 12.33
328 H FIU 11- 4 7 4 + 2.65
329 A Houston 22- 8 14 4 +++ 9.60
402 H Utah 17- 0 17 2 +++ 12.33
403 H Utah 9- 1 8 2 +++ 6.33
404 H Utah 2- 2 0 2 -1.67
410 A Arizona State 1- 7 -6 -1 -- -5.06
411 A Arizona State 8- 1 7 -1 +++ 7.94
412 A Arizona State 4- 3 1 -1 1.94
415 H Stetson 5- 3 2 5 - -3.49
417 H Kansas 6- 3 3 2 1.20
418 H Kansas 9- 2 7 2 ++ 5.20
419 H Kansas 2- 4 -2 2 - -3.80
422 H North Florida 4- 1 3 3 -0.19
424 A Florida 0- 7 -7 -2 -- -4.82
425 H Florida 0- 7 -7 -1 --- -6.30
501 A Iowa State 8- 5 3 1 1.54
502 A Iowa State 9-13 -4 1 -- -5.46
503 A Iowa State 12- 4 8 1 +++ 6.54
507 H Kansas 5- 6 -1 2 - -2.80
515 H Jacksonville State 2- 1 1 2 -1.23
516 A Stetson 10- 1 9 4 ++ 5.00
517 A Florida State 1- 2 -1 -2 0.97
517 H Florida State 4- 2 2 0 + 2.48
522 A UCLA 1- 9 -8 -4 - -3.96
523 H UCLA 4-14 -10 -3 --- -7.45
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UNDER-ACHIEVED GAMES
Date Opponent Score Real Pred +/- Goals* 213 H Georgia 5-13 -8 -1 --- -7.30 215 H Southern Utah 6- 8 -2 6 --- -8.28 314 H Baylor 3-12 -9 3 --- -11.77 315 H Baylor 2- 8 -6 3 --- -8.77 321 H Texas Tech 0- 9 -9 -2 --- -6.75 325 H Florida Gulf Coast 3- 2 1 7 --- -6.34 425 H Florida 0- 7 -7 -1 --- -6.30 523 H UCLA 4-14 -10 -3 --- -7.45 214 H Nebraska 0- 6 -6 -2 -- -4.31 228 H George Washington 5- 1 4 9 -- -4.61 410 A Arizona State 1- 7 -6 -1 -- -5.06 424 A Florida 0- 7 -7 -2 -- -4.82 502 A Iowa State 9-13 -4 1 -- -5.46 206 H Duke 2- 5 -3 0 - -3.38 219 H Ohio 4- 1 3 5 - -2.10 220 H Penn State 5- 6 -1 2 - -3.03 222 H Notre Dame 3- 1 2 4 - -2.00 322 H Texas Tech 2- 7 -5 -2 - -2.75 415 H Stetson 5- 3 2 5 - -3.49 419 H Kansas 2- 4 -2 2 - -3.80 507 H Kansas 5- 6 -1 2 - -2.80 522 A UCLA 1- 9 -8 -4 - -3.96 |
OVER-ACHIEVED GAMES
Date Opponent Score Real Pred +/- Goals* 205 H Boston University 13- 0 13 3 +++ 10.01 327 H Utah 16- 1 15 2 +++ 12.33 329 A Houston 22- 8 14 4 +++ 9.60 402 H Utah 17- 0 17 2 +++ 12.33 403 H Utah 9- 1 8 2 +++ 6.33 411 A Arizona State 8- 1 7 -1 +++ 7.94 503 A Iowa State 12- 4 8 1 +++ 6.54 214 A LSU 5- 1 4 -2 ++ 5.51 228 H Florida A&M 21- 2 19 9 ++ 4.59 306 A Oklahoma State 4- 1 3 -2 ++ 4.60 418 H Kansas 9- 2 7 2 ++ 5.20 516 A Stetson 10- 1 9 4 ++ 5.00 220 H Ohio 9- 1 8 5 + 2.90 226 H Dartmouth 8- 0 8 5 + 2.67 308 A Oklahoma State 6- 4 2 -2 + 3.60 328 H FIU 11- 4 7 4 + 2.65 517 H Florida State 4- 2 2 0 + 2.48 |
division Games OnlyAverage number of games used in Games Correction = 25.20
Date Opponent (W-L PR) SCORE SAFE SAFE Home No Games SCI
Loss Win Field Correction Points
SLP SWP Advantage Factor
3 H Boston Univers ( 7-10, 94.0) 13- 0 -5.90 13.47 -0.74 0.41 10.52
3 H Cal State Bake ( 0-18, 86.8) 10- 0 -13.11 6.26 -0.74 0.41 4.56
3 H Duke (46-15, 96.6) 2- 5 -3.29 16.08 -0.74 0.41 -0.83
3 H Maryland (19-30, 90.3) 15- 7 -9.64 9.73 -0.74 0.41 7.42
3 H Buffalo ( 1-13, 87.8) 12- 2 -12.14 7.23 -0.74 0.41 5.36
3 H Maryland (19-30, 90.3) 9- 1 -9.64 9.73 -0.74 0.41 7.42
3 H Missouri (24-31, 94.5) 5- 1 -5.40 13.97 -0.74 0.41 10.93
3 H Northwestern (29-20, 95.4) 6- 4 -4.47 14.90 -0.74 0.41 11.70
3 H Georgia (44-17, 97.7) 5-13 -2.21 17.16 -0.74 0.41 -0.61
3 A LSU (37-21, 97.0) 5- 1 -2.88 16.49 0.74 0.41 14.24
3 H Nebraska (51-10, 98.7) 0- 6 -1.22 18.15 -0.74 0.41 -0.40
3 H Southern Utah (22-27, 90.7) 6- 8 -9.19 10.18 -0.74 0.41 -2.05
3 H Ohio ( 5- 3, 91.9) 4- 1 -8.01 11.36 -0.74 0.41 8.77
3 H Ohio ( 5- 3, 91.9) 9- 1 -8.01 11.36 -0.74 0.41 8.77
3 H Penn State (32-22, 95.0) 5- 6 -4.94 14.43 -0.74 0.41 -1.17
3 H Notre Dame (24-29, 93.0) 6- 2 -6.91 12.46 -0.74 0.41 9.68
3 H Notre Dame (24-29, 93.0) 3- 1 -6.91 12.46 -0.74 0.41 9.68
3 A Lamar (10- 7, 92.6) 5- 3 -7.27 12.10 0.74 0.41 10.61
3 H Florida Atlant (33-21, 94.7) 9- 5 -5.24 14.13 -0.74 0.41 11.06
3 H Dartmouth ( 0- 5, 91.7) 8- 0 -8.24 11.13 -0.74 0.41 8.58
3 H Dartmouth ( 0- 5, 91.7) 8- 1 -8.24 11.13 -0.74 0.41 8.58
3 H Wagner ( 0- 4, 90.0) 9- 1 -9.94 9.43 -0.74 0.41 7.18
3 H George Washing ( 2- 3, 88.4) 5- 1 -11.52 7.85 -0.74 0.41 5.87
3 H Florida A&M ( 3- 8, 87.6) 21- 2 -12.31 7.06 -0.74 0.41 5.22
3 A Oklahoma State (41-17, 97.1) 4- 1 -2.79 16.58 0.74 0.41 14.31
3 A Oklahoma State (41-17, 97.1) 1- 2 -2.79 16.58 0.74 0.41 -0.42
3 A Oklahoma State (41-17, 97.1) 6- 4 -2.79 16.58 0.74 0.41 14.31
3 H Baylor (32-26, 94.2) 4- 3 -5.67 13.70 -0.74 0.41 10.70
3 H Baylor (32-26, 94.2) 3-12 -5.67 13.70 -0.74 0.41 -1.33
3 H Baylor (32-26, 94.2) 2- 8 -5.67 13.70 -0.74 0.41 -1.33
3 A FIU (32-18, 92.6) 3- 1 -7.26 12.11 0.74 0.41 10.62
3 H Texas Tech (60-11, 99.2) 3- 4 -0.66 18.71 -0.74 0.41 -0.29
3 H Texas Tech (60-11, 99.2) 0- 9 -0.66 18.71 -0.74 0.41 -0.29
3 H Texas Tech (60-11, 99.2) 2- 7 -0.66 18.71 -0.74 0.41 -0.29
3 H Florida Gulf C ( 3-18, 89.7) 3- 2 -10.24 9.13 -0.74 0.41 6.93
3 H Utah (36-19, 95.3) 16- 1 -4.58 14.79 -0.74 0.41 11.61
3 H FIU (32-18, 92.6) 11- 4 -7.26 12.11 -0.74 0.41 9.40
3 A Houston (20-30, 91.1) 22- 8 -8.79 10.58 0.74 0.41 9.36
3 H Utah (36-19, 95.3) 17- 0 -4.58 14.79 -0.74 0.41 11.61
3 H Utah (36-19, 95.3) 9- 1 -4.58 14.79 -0.74 0.41 11.61
3 H Utah (36-19, 95.3) 2- 2 -4.58 14.79 -0.74 0.41 0.00
3 A Arizona State (45-18, 96.4) 1- 7 -3.45 15.92 0.74 0.41 -0.56
3 A Arizona State (45-18, 96.4) 8- 1 -3.45 15.92 0.74 0.41 13.77
3 A Arizona State (45-18, 96.4) 4- 3 -3.45 15.92 0.74 0.41 13.77
3 H Stetson ( 1-13, 91.5) 5- 3 -8.40 10.97 -0.74 0.41 8.46
3 H Kansas (34-24, 95.2) 6- 3 -4.71 14.66 -0.74 0.41 11.50
3 H Kansas (34-24, 95.2) 9- 2 -4.71 14.66 -0.74 0.41 11.50
3 H Kansas (34-24, 95.2) 2- 4 -4.71 14.66 -0.74 0.41 -1.13
3 H North Florida ( 6- 5, 93.8) 4- 1 -6.10 13.27 -0.74 0.41 10.35
3 A Florida (51-13, 97.7) 0- 7 -2.21 17.16 0.74 0.41 -0.30
3 H Florida (51-13, 97.7) 0- 7 -2.21 17.16 -0.74 0.41 -0.61
3 A Iowa State (33-21, 94.1) 8- 5 -5.85 13.52 0.74 0.41 11.79
3 A Iowa State (33-21, 94.1) 9-13 -5.85 13.52 0.74 0.41 -1.05
3 A Iowa State (33-21, 94.1) 12- 4 -5.85 13.52 0.74 0.41 11.79
3 H Kansas (34-24, 95.2) 5- 6 -4.71 14.66 -0.74 0.41 -1.13
3 H Jacksonville S (42-14, 94.8) 2- 1 -5.13 14.24 -0.74 0.41 11.15
3 A Stetson ( 1-13, 91.5) 10- 1 -8.40 10.97 0.74 0.41 9.68
3 A Florida State (52-10, 97.5) 1- 2 -2.42 16.95 0.74 0.41 -0.35
3 H Florida State (52-10, 97.5) 4- 2 -2.42 16.95 -0.74 0.41 13.39
3 A UCLA (52-11, 99.5) 1- 9 -0.35 19.02 0.74 0.41 -0.08
3 H UCLA (52-11, 99.5) 4-14 -0.35 19.02 -0.74 0.41 -0.23
------
389.33
|
winning pts = 403.7767 losing points = -14.4492
SCI ={(SLP or SLW) +/- home-field advantage} * Game Correction.
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| (W-L PR) = Won-loss record and power rating |
| SCORE = game score |
| SAFE Loss (SLP) = Points deducted for losing to the opponent |
| SAFE Win (SWP) = Points awarded for defeating the opponent |
| Home-field Advantage = goals deducted/awarded for site |
| No games correction = normalzation based on a ~16 game schedule |
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